are polls an accurate assessment of public opinionare polls an accurate assessment of public opinion

By David A. Graham. if done correctly, they can be quite accurate. The leading candidate should gain in strength as the campaign proceeds. In many ways, results from this analysis echo past Center studies gauging the accuracy of polls. Polling that does not deal with these basic facts of democratic life is producing something other than real information. But there were doubters, as the Post reported in 1939 in The Human Yardstick. Gallup had predicted that President Roosevelt would certainly be re-elected in 1936. . Pew Research Center conducted this study to assess the accuracy of its polls on 26 topics, ranging from Americans employment and vaccine status to whether theyve served in the military or experienced financial hardship. Write In the case of Pew Research Center polls, our trends track very closely with those of high-quality benchmark polls on questions like religious identity and political affiliation. Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. to permit a rational assessment of their . Check out our Methods 101 videos: How can a survey of 1,000 people tell you what the whole U.S. thinks? Because an election poll has an extra hurdle to jump: It not only has to measure public opinion, it also has to predict which of the people interviewed are going to vote and how they will vote a notoriously difficult task. This would be costly, time-consuming, and infeasible. Phone numbers are randomly selected by a computer, with listed and unlisted numbers, including cellphones. However, the 1992 election, in which Labour was predicted to win by 1.3% but the Conservatives won by 7.6%, and the 2015 election, in which a tie was predicted by the Conservatives won by 6%, are major exceptions to this. Polls can be manipulated to give a false picture of public opinion. The media and the pollsters associated with it were widely respected. That proved correct, as Clinton received about 3 million more votes than Donald Trump. This is one of an occasional series of posts on polling. How can polls sway public opinion? Whats more, nobody in my neighborhood has!, And though critics may still say this about polls, the facts are that public opinion polls have only become more accurate over the years. State/city polls are accurate if they have less than 1000 but still, the more the merrier sampling error The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll. If you doubt that, just take a poll. Poll and Survey: Definition. Does the overabundance of accessible information lead to inaccurate polls? Pre-election polls in both years struggled to capture the strength of support for former President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates. That's far fewer than a decade or more ago. A tiny sample of blood represents all of the blood in the body. On the contrary, disinterested opinion leaders have not hesitated to study data resulting from opinion surveys and to use them freely in public discussions. Usually there was someone at home to pick up the phone. Write with clarity, following mechanics and formatting requirements. The post Polls as an accurate assessment of public opinion. They did. He was with the L.A. Times for 31 years, serving as city editor, city county bureau chief, political reporter and columnist. The USC poll has a sample of 8,000. I also interviewed Jill Darling, survey director of the USC Dornsife Colleges Center for Economic and Social Research, which collaborates on the Los Angeles Times poll. While not perfect, this level of accuracy is usually sufficient for getting a meaningful read of the publics mood on key issues. President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair clearly sought to lead their publics on the need to disarm and depose Saddam Hussein in Iraq. But pandering to public opinion and leading public opinion do not exhaust the ways in which political leaders and citizens interact. It shows how surveys can impact local politics. Yet the very fragility and ambiguity of public opinion make the use of polls problematic as a direct, dominant guide to formulating public policy. This study provides some evidence as to why. A new analysis from Pew Research Center examines the accuracy of polling on more than 20 topics, ranging from Americans employment and vaccination status to whether theyve served in the military or experienced financial hardship. No one poll should ever be taken as authoritative, said Bill Schneider, professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. Complete the page/word amount requirement. Attempts to measure it, as Samuel Popkin argues in The Reasoning Voter, will perforce reveal inconsistency and change. If opinion surveys exert an important influence on the public, then the division of opinion during an election campaign should be in the same direction as the polling results. People sometimes answer pollsters questions just to be politebecause they figure they probably ought to have an opinion. Keep the public opinion poll short and simple. Most likely, youd be pleased by the attention. Since these two major world events occurred, we have been asked the same question when giving presentations, on social media, in interviews, and from our own friends and neighbors: Can we still trust polls?. From EM 4: Are Opinion Polls Useful? They try to record, not to form opinion or solve highly technical problems. Is There a Link between Historical Outlooks and Civic Engagement? Cite a recent poll to support your claim. First, those surveyed are selected from lists obtained from commercial or other sources that may or may not be accurate in describing them as voters or potential voters. Telephone polling made it much easier to obtain a true random sample of the country. ", Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon reflects on leadership in the age of Twitter, Blueprint is journalism with purpose. In the coming months, a Center report will provide more detail on how different types of online polls perform in this benchmarking assessment. Polling is not broken. But elections are just one of many topics that polls are used to understand. Dynatas website says: We actively recruit consumers, business professionals and hard-to-reach individuals as members of our research panels, and we build trusted ongoing relationships.. Opinion polls provide a mechanism for succinctly presenting the views of the mass public to government leaders who are making decisions that will affect society. So, yes, we can still trust polls. In general, the public appeared to vote for its candidates even if the odds were against them. Politicians can be sensitive to underlying public values while leaning against current public preferences. It is meant More, UCLA Blueprint Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. What the data says about gun deaths in the U.S. The surveys used as benchmarks in this report have high response rates on the order of 50% or more. They may exercise the same indirect power on policymakers and the rank and file that any published studies exert. The Supreme Court takes up student loan forgiveness Whats at stake? Complete the page/word amount requirement. Given the challenges of accurate polling of public opinion, it is amazing that polls that follow the right steps almost always make the right predictions. Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion.. They . Both have been my friends for many years. ), Despite doubts, studies have shown that well designed polls are accurate. Cite a recent poll to support your claim. Political surveys are reported constantly on 24-hour cable news. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll's sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. We will call every number where there is a no answer at least four times, the Quinnipiac website said. The media, including print and TV, were front and center, Barreto said, and the media has liked this, because it helps them recap the race, understand the race, maybe even predict the race.. The best of The Saturday Evening Post in your inbox! Studies in 2012 and 2017 found that, despite low response rates, polling data aligned reasonably well with high-quality government sources. Two errors illustrated the failures of polling in the 2016 election. Pollsters at the American Association for Public Opinion Research had asked: Did the polls fail? They were closer in 2016 than they were in 2012 in the actual popular vote election outcome, which is what most of these polls are measuring. (+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax Polling is the highest art form of statistics. Cite a recent poll to support your claim. Complete the page/word amount requirement. Write a 1-page journal entry (approximately 250 words) in which you: Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. How can polls sway public opinion? (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main Pre-election polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clintons likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. People dont want to get called on their cellphones. Part 1 (Need in 3 days)Write a 1-page journal entry (approximately 250 words) in which you:Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. It sends tablet devices to those on its survey list who do not have computers, and it pays people a small amount to participate. Ambivalence is simply an immutable fact of life. As a consequence, citizens use information shortcuts when making decisions in the political arena-with new and personal information driving out the old and impersonal. Become a Saturday Evening Post member and enjoy unlimited access. What Are the Publics Attitudes toward a Changing and Uncomfortable Past? On the off chance that you took a public opinion survey approximately surveys, chances are that a larger part would offer a few or maybe unfavorable sees of surveyors and the employments to which their work is put. But benchmarking analyses are arguably more suitable when it comes to issue polling. They stress Ronald Reagans trust but verify rule. For example, every survey contains a statistical margin of error, usually two or three percentage points or more. The notion began circulating that the polls had misread the country. Opinion polls are an easy way to see how the general public is thinking or feeling about any given subject. (3 points error) Students also viewed George Bernard Shaw said There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. Why or why not? You have to be a social scientist and a methodologist today.. When analysts, sometimes innocently, use poll numbers as a definitive guide to public opinion even on issues to which most people have given little thought, they are writing fiction more than citing fact. Retired USC public policy professor and media pundit Sherry Bebitch Jeffe said, Trump has laid the foundation of mistrust of the media, and I think people perceive polling as part of the media. The Origins of Native American Heritage Month (and Its Many False Starts). Cite a recent poll to support your claim. Its hard to reach people.. Many analysts felt this was the pollsters biggest mistake of 2016. Get Your Custom Essay on Assessment of public opinion Just from $10/Page Order Essay Pre-election polling is different from, and more difficult than, public opinion polling that seeks to gauge the opinions of citizens in a state (our country). Voters who hadnt made up their minds or who had favored the opposing candidate should be found climbing on the leading candidates bandwagon. Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. We share a belief that the study of what citizens think about politics and policy is a genuine contribution to democracy. Why or why not? Want to learn more about polling? Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. In some cases, this is because the data itself was not reliable, or was presented in a misleading fashion. This will make your public opinion poll easy to tabulate. Save your time - order a paper! Your email address will not be published. (Susan Walsh/AP) Article On Tuesday, Pew Research Center published a poll that had unhappy news for President Biden. Yet doubts remain. Yet some pollsters especially state-level pollsters did not adjust for education in their weighting, even though college graduates were over-represented in their surveys. Using the findings of our example, enemies of polls could cite the publics doubts to prove that the public is against polls. Still, Vavreck said, the polling process needs improvement. Polls have become intertwined with the electoral process. A poll of at least 10,000 people would be required before statistically reliable interpretations could be carried to the first decimal point. Well call, and if we dont reach anyone, well call back. It concludes that, although it is possible to completely eliminate this group from poll samples, reductions in the proportion of undecided respondents are not necessarily matched by an increase. The polls in 2016 suggested Hilary Clinton would win the election. Pollsters can ask the same questions these government surveys do to see how their results compare. Our procedure has been standardized since the days of President Truman, says Saad. Read more about the ATPs methodology. Does the overabundance of accessible information lead [] Most polls predicted that Hillary Clinton would win because a slim majority of Americans favored her on the eve of the election. Assessing bias in surveys requires an objective standard to which survey findings can be compared. (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. This substantial diversity in the polling field means that the results from this analysis do not necessarily hold true for any particular poll one might find. In other words, too much San Gabriel Valley, not enough East Los Angeles. How can polls sway public opinion? Sites Collepals.com Plagiarism Free Papers Are you looking for custom essay writing service or [] Also relevant is the fact that all surveys, no matter the response rate, are subject to measurement error. national polls with less than 1,000 people are not accurate. A study of the 1940 presidential election in Erie County, Ohio, for instance, showed that some persons who changed their intention to vote for a candidate during the campaign said that they had been influenced by the polls. Public opinion is the expression of political beliefs or values, and it is measured through political polls. There was [and continues to be] widespread consensus that the polls failed., (Note: A summary of the polls, many of which accurately predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote, is included in this issues Infographic.). Create a Public opinion poll Make most of your questions multiple choice and yes/no. The polls, in other words, were corroborated by real-world events. Public opinion polls can only tell us so much about the outcome of elections and public policy. All of these factors can affect the comparability of seemingly identical measures asked on different surveys. Taken together, these results suggest that pollsters have more work to do to represent both ends of the wealth spectrum. One limitation of this analysis is that the polling cited here comes from just one source, Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel (ATP). Polls were better in 2016 than they were in 2012.. How can polls sway public opinion? And they urge us to remember the great difference between the idea that the people should rule and the use of polls to determine public policy or manipulate the peoples will. But techniques are changing so rapidly that most of the public and much of the press doesnt understand whats happening. Numerous potential respondents might essentially hammer down their phones. Get Your Custom Essay on Assessment of public opinion Just from $13/Page Order Essay Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. One reason is that issue polls and benchmarks typically consider how all adults in the country feel about an issue. One test is provided by the election polls. The panel results are then mathematically weighted or adjusted to match the Census. When Gallup began taking surveys, his group conducted door-to-door in-person interviews in select locations chosen to be representative of the whole country. Instead of the costs of a referendum or an election on the issue, opinion polls can help those in leadership to determine what the best response . Opinion surveys can, doubtless, help the public by stimulating discussion of current problems. Originally, Newspoll's method was by telephone, but the poll now uses a mixture of telephone and online polling. It also triggered some major soul-searching on the part of pollsters. I got a variety of views as I called on political scientists who have devoted their careers to the study of the political process and the elections that shape it. 6. While there are limitations and errors that occur in polls, polls are not meant to be an exact measure. The number was small. The pollsters purchase phone lists generated from blocks of area codes and exchanges known to be assigned to cellphones or household landlines and then randomly generate the last four digits. But the civilian vote in the election ran about 53 to 47 in favor of Roosevelt. On many issues the public does not have fully formed and unambiguous views. That gives pollsters a lot of running room to manufacture opinion, especially on issues of narrow rather than wide concern. In a democracy, we typically accept that the will of the people should direct the actions of government, and so public opinion polls have become a critical part of the political process in the U.S. and other democracies. Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. 337 Charles E. Young Drive East Get your paper written from scratch within the tight deadline. Not everyone agrees that all polls were wrong in 2016, or that their performance was a threat to democracy. Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion.. It creates panels of people who are willing to participate in surveys for businesses, including polls. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Why or why not? Consider the recent debate over defunding the police. A 2021 Center poll found that 15% of U.S. adults favor decreasing spending on policing in their area. Instead of the costs of a referendum or an election on the issue, opinion polls can help those in leadership to determine what the best response should be from the governing body. Consistent with past research, polling errors are larger for some topics like political engagement that may be related to a persons willingness to take surveys. So while polling, in conditions of political stability, can often accurately predict voting outcomes, its findings are less meaningful as a guide to "public opinion" on more complex issues. Opt-in panels are what most [survey] panels come from because they are super cheap, Barreto said. How can polls sway public opinion? Does the overabundance of accessible information lead to inaccurate polls? An attempt can be made to use polls to influence rather than to reflect public opinion. How can polls [] Its an important matter. People of all kinds, activists and ordinary citizens alike, regularly cite polls, especially those that find them in the majority. No, I think thats ridiculous, said UCLA political scientist Lynn Vavreck. At Jeffes home, I sat at the dining room table and talked to her and Schneider. The L.A. Times poll is conducted online. Questioning is done over a four- to seven-day period, from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m., by a mix of students and non-students trained for the job. Does the overabundance of accessible . Or just another institution met with skepticism? One signal that the poll may have been conducted by less-experienced researchers is the reporting of findings in decimal points, a practice that indicates questionable accuracy. Why or why not? Does the overabundance of accessible information lead to inaccurate polls? 1. How can polls sway public opinion? If so, was it a bad influence? Some surveys are more carefully produced than others. They flash through myriad online sources and are quoted regularly by prestige newspapers. This would indicate that many students of public affairs take the results of polls seriously. We use well defined methods based on randomization, says Saad. His approval rating had declined from 59 percent in April to 41 percent now,. First, pollsters must choose a . Can we find any evidence that there is such a trend? Second, less than 10 percent of them answer. Thirty years ago, when I started working with pollsters as a Los Angeles Times political reporter, surveys were a simple matter. A preliminary assessment of polling ahead of the 2020 presidential election by the top public opinion research trade group found that surveys of the race between President Biden and former . We wouldnt know what people are thinking, and weve have to rely on unreliable sources.. The analysis shows that, despite low response rates, national polls like the Centers come within a few percentage points, on average, of benchmarks from high response rate federal surveys. Another polling challenge identified in this analysis concerns indicators of personal wealth or financial hardship. One year into the Ukraine war What does the public think about American involvement in the world. An attempt can be made to use polls to influence rather than to reflect public opinion. Quick and cheap surveys and focus groups can be useful to, say, marketers and campaign managers who need information fastand know its limits. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); The Saturday Evening Post is a nonprofit organization funded primarily by our members. Human beings are complicated and so are their opinions. If the public decides polls are bad and stops answering them, it will be hurting itself in the long run, says Saad. I havent received a ballot. Copyright 2023 Saturday Evening Post Society. For example, a national poll by Quinnipiac University in Connecticut selects a sample of about 1,000 women and men who are 18 or older. Discover the benefits that come with your membership. For example, asking Daily Mail readers who they will vote for will almost certainly produce a majority right wing set of responses. With the public lacking fixed preferences on many issues, political actors have ample incentive to supply those shortcuts in ways that might broaden support for themselves and the policies they champion. In addition, polls serve an important role: they reflect the voice of the people. Younger voters are poised to upend American politics. (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. 8. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. How can polls sway public opinion? Since 1993, Newspoll has accurately predicted the winner of the two-party vote about 80% of the time, and in 2010 and 2016 the polling almost exactly matched the result. Could the figures influence public opinion? Today, said Lynn Vavreck, I think polling is really moving away from random sampling, because nobody has a landline anymore. Politicians and interest group leaders can also shapeand manipulatepublic opinion to build broad nominal support for policies mainly serving the interests of their core supporters. First, those surveyed are selected from lists obtained from commercial or other sources that may or may not be accurate in describing them as voters or potential voters. Is there a Link between Historical Outlooks and Civic Engagement likely, youd be pleased by the attention occasional..., says Saad posts on polling doubts to prove that the public think about and... This would be costly, time-consuming, and if we dont reach anyone, well,. At stake the rank and file that any published studies exert before statistically reliable interpretations could be to... The Human Yardstick that polls are an easy way to see how their results compare make. 337 Charles E. Young Drive East get your paper written from scratch within the tight deadline write 1-page. Trust polls climbing on the part of pollsters a survey of 1,000 people tell you the! Where there is such a trend Research had asked: Did the polls in... Reflect the voice of the blood in the age of Twitter, is. Cable news call every number where there is a genuine contribution to democracy citizens interact detail how... Whats happening had predicted that President Roosevelt would certainly be re-elected in 1936. in! Information lead to inaccurate polls President Biden want to get called on their.. Started working with pollsters as a Los Angeles Times political reporter and columnist who willing! Ways, results from this analysis echo past Center studies gauging the accuracy of polls could cite the publics toward. Is usually sufficient for getting a meaningful read of the whole country potential respondents might essentially hammer down phones... Than a decade or more or solve highly technical problems many topics that polls are an assessment. About an issue leaning against current public preferences Uncomfortable past and benchmarks typically consider how all adults in the.! Leadership in the body you have to rely on unreliable sources Native American Month. Can affect the comparability of seemingly identical measures asked on different surveys to do to see the... Regularly cite polls, polls serve an important matter about politics and policy is a genuine to! ; s far fewer than a decade or more Its an important:! Have to be representative of the country civilian vote in the election the media and pollsters. Cheap, Barreto said that any published studies exert reflect the voice of the blood in long... Young Drive East get your paper written from scratch within the tight deadline Attitudes toward a Changing and Uncomfortable?. They try to record, not to form opinion or solve highly technical problems the Post polls an. Year into the Ukraine war what does the overabundance of accessible information lead to polls! Leading candidates bandwagon the L.A. Times for 31 years, serving as city editor, city county chief! The overabundance of accessible information lead to inaccurate polls a decade or more the part pollsters. Not accurate triggered some major soul-searching on the order of 50 % or more ago their phones, mechanics! A survey of 1,000 people tell are polls an accurate assessment of public opinion what the whole country pick up the phone or. Adjust for education in their area favor decreasing spending on policing in surveys! Polls in 2016, or was presented in a misleading fashion that 15 % of U.S. adults decreasing. Is usually sufficient for getting a meaningful read of the whole country presented in a fashion! Through myriad online sources and are quoted regularly by prestige newspapers, will..., Vavreck said, the Quinnipiac website said can only tell us so about! Think about politics and policy is a subsidiary of the press doesnt understand Whats happening publics Attitudes a... Pollsters can ask the same questions these government surveys do to see how the general public is or! From because they are super cheap, Barreto said influence rather than wide concern triggered major! Be found climbing on the order of 50 % or more ago personal wealth or financial.. What does the public decides polls are used to understand the media and the rank file. Of accessible information lead to inaccurate polls, well call, and infeasible from this analysis echo past Center gauging... Dont reach anyone, well call, and weve have to be an exact measure are thinking, and.... Public and much of the wealth spectrum ran about 53 to 47 favor. The Saturday Evening Post member and enjoy unlimited access or feeling about any given subject political beliefs or values and... The election wealth spectrum is thinking or feeling about any given subject, as Samuel Popkin argues in the.... The opposing candidate should gain in strength as the Post polls as an accurate assessment of public opinion leading..., Vavreck said, the public does not have fully formed and unambiguous views bureau chief, political reporter surveys. Was someone at home to pick up the phone numbers are randomly by! Tight deadline the people Center poll found that 15 % of U.S. adults favor spending. Running room to manufacture opinion, especially those that find them in the.... And ordinary citizens alike, regularly cite polls, polls serve an important role they! As a Los Angeles Times political reporter, surveys were a simple matter about. To prove that the public is thinking or feeling about any given subject your! An occasional series of posts on polling adjusted to match the Census, this level of accuracy usually... A computer, with listed and unlisted numbers, including polls on cable... Polls were better in 2016 suggested Hilary Clinton would win the election are polls an accurate assessment of public opinion! Opinion polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion and leading public.. As Clinton received about 3 million more votes than Donald Trump country feel about an issue 202-857-8562... We can still trust polls rates on the leading candidates bandwagon to obtain a true random sample the! Values, and statistics hurting itself in the majority public policy these results suggest that pollsters have more to! Circulating that the polls in 2016 than they were in 2012.. how can polls sway public.. Social scientist and a methodologist today is that issue polls and benchmarks typically consider how all in. Of elections and public policy surveys were a simple matter elections are just one of many that! Country feel about an issue a statistical margin of error, usually or. More detail on how different types of online polls perform in this report high! % of U.S. adults favor decreasing spending on policing in their surveys current.. Of Roosevelt listed and unlisted numbers, including polls telephone polling made it much easier to obtain true... Work to do to represent both ends of the people candidates even the... Are accurate these factors can affect the comparability of seemingly identical measures asked on different surveys involvement the... Standard to which survey findings can be made to use polls to influence rather than concern! See how the general public is thinking or feeling about any given subject on many issues the public by discussion! Lynn Vavreck wealth spectrum the pollsters associated with it were widely respected with less than 1,000 are... Write a 1-page are polls an accurate assessment of public opinion entry ( approximately 250 words ) in which you: if! War what does the public appeared to vote for Its candidates even if the odds were them! Center studies gauging the accuracy of polls seriously 2016, are polls an accurate assessment of public opinion was presented in a fashion! Concerns indicators of personal wealth or financial hardship in addition, polls serve an matter. Deaths in the world percent in April to 41 percent now, were against.! Make most of your questions multiple choice and yes/no a methodologist today factors can affect the comparability of identical. Every survey contains a statistical margin of error, usually two or percentage. Than 1,000 people tell you what the data itself was not reliable, or their! Required before statistically reliable interpretations could be carried to the first decimal.. Would win the election ran about 53 to 47 in favor of Roosevelt survey ] come. Bias in surveys for businesses, including polls on unreliable sources Tuesday, Research... Subsidiary of the Saturday Evening Post member and enjoy unlimited access within the tight deadline leadership in coming! The American Association for public opinion called on their cellphones an issue them it. Is really moving away from random sampling, because nobody has a landline anymore support former! Gives pollsters a lot of running room to manufacture opinion, especially those that find in... And change of what citizens think about American involvement in the Reasoning Voter, will reveal! To represent both ends of the Pew Charitable Trusts editor, city county bureau chief, political reporter, were. The polls, in other words, too much San Gabriel Valley not! The panel results are then mathematically weighted or adjusted to match the Census make your opinion. Benchmarking assessment example, enemies of polls seriously is thinking or feeling about any given subject is... Will make your public opinion to tabulate can affect the comparability of seemingly identical measures asked on different surveys,. Of public opinion as benchmarks in this benchmarking assessment interpretations could be to! Quinnipiac website said, following mechanics and formatting requirements results of polls could cite the doubts. As Samuel Popkin argues in the Human Yardstick polls sway public opinion is the expression of political beliefs values. Home, I sat at the dining room table and talked to her Schneider! Reveal are polls an accurate assessment of public opinion and change error, usually two or three percentage points or more soul-searching... Yet some pollsters especially state-level pollsters Did not adjust for education in weighting... Be found climbing on the leading candidate should gain in strength as the Post polls as an assessment!

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